The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is among the most disruptive global events in modern history. In particular, this affiliation does not alter our adherence to PLOS ONE policies on sharing data and materials.Ĭompeting interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist. Wattam, is affiliated with a commercial company, W&P Academic Consultancy, but we declare that no competing interests resulted from this. The specific roles of authors are articulated in the ‘Author Contributions’ section.
Wattam, but did not have any role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. The reference number for this project is: COVID-19/2020-2/14858807/ABMLUX The funder provided support in the form of salary for Dr. All input data can be found in the Scenarios/Luxembourg folder of the abmlux repository while all output data can be found in the output repository.įunding: This project was funded by a grant from the COVID-19 Fast-Track program of the Fonds National de la Recherche Luxembourg ( ), with the grant being awarded to Dr. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.ĭata Availability: All input and output data files are available in the public repositories and. Received: MaAccepted: NovemPublished: December 17, 2021Ĭopyright: © 2021 Thompson, Wattam. We conclude that, short of a permanent lockdown, vaccination is by far the most effective way to suppress and ultimately control the spread of COVID-19.Ĭitation: Thompson J, Wattam S (2021) Estimating the impact of interventions against COVID-19: From lockdown to vaccination. In this context, we investigate the impact of vaccine efficacy, capacity, hesitancy and strategy. When vaccinating in the midst of an outbreak, the challenge is more difficult. When vaccinating against a future outbreak, our results suggest that herd immunity can be achieved at relatively low coverage, with substantial levels of protection achieved with only 30% of the population fully immune. Lockdowns are very effective although costly, while the impact of an 11pm-6am curfew is relatively small. Our simulations suggest that testing and contract tracing reduce cases substantially, but are less effective at reducing deaths. In particular, with R 0 = 2.45, the SEIR model infects 87% of the resident population while our agent-based model infects only around 23% of the resident population. Our model predicts far fewer cases and deaths than the equivalent equation-based SEIR model. The model is validated against COVID-19 clinical monitoring data collected in Luxembourg in 2020.
The model is highly heterogeneous, featuring spatial clustering, over 2000 behavioural types and a 10 minute time resolution. Our model is based on collation, with agents performing activities and moving between locations accordingly. In this article, we present an agent-based model of COVID-19 in Luxembourg, and use it to estimate the impact, on cases and deaths, of interventions including testing, contact tracing, lockdown, curfew and vaccination. Since the first case was identified in China in December 2019 the disease has spread worldwide, leading to an ongoing pandemic. The problem is not at the administration level, it's at the home level.Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious disease of humans caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). "I think administrators have done an excellent job thus far. "I don't know what changes can be made," Roper said, adding that his son no longer wanted to go to the school after the incident. Aaron Roper said his son, who's a freshman at Northern, texted him about the lockdown as it was happening. Some parents were at the school to take their children home as soon as the lockdown ended.
"This is the perfect situation to diffuse the situation to have parties involved speak with one another work through their grievances." "Durham has a really terrific restorative justice program," Blagrove said. The other option, according to Blagrove, is an approach known as "restorative justice." Restorative justice is a system of criminal justice which focuses on the rehabilitation of offenders through reconciliation with victims and the community at large. "Depending on their ages, juvenile petitions could be taken out against them," she said.
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